I don't know the reasons behind the government's keenness to pass this bill, and I don't care (the old difference between ignorance and indifference again). Whilst in my local non-smoking pub tonight I did start considering the possible effects that the new legislation might have.
Firstly we have the social impact. Some of the criticisms of the current licensing laws is that they are outdated, and also the common 11pm licence rule means that people try to get down as many drinks as possible before closing time. This latter fact has been blamed for the binge drinking culture that our society currently suffers from.
It seems that the basic premise will bring pub, and other licensed outlets into a more continental style of opening time. However, the new law does not address our other European divergence from alcohol retail, the duty levied on alcoholic beverages. In my travels around Europe I've seen a few different cultures, and very roughly speaking you can divide European alcohol attitudes into one of two categories. The first, and most noticeable in places like France, Italy, Germany, is the typical continental attitude, low duties, very flexible hours of sale. The second attitude, more prevalent in Northern, or Scandinavian, European countries is that of the high duty, stronger restrictions on hours of sales. I would say that on balance Britain has been traditionally more in line with the Scandinavian legislature. The new ruling will cause the start of an interesting disparity.
So on the one-hand pubs will be able to stay open longer, if granted a licence, but will those places necessarily attract more business? I don't think so, there's a finite limit to how many people want to drink and how much those people do drink. Initially there may be a bit more bingeing, more violence, unrest, puke on the street etc., but things will probably settle down eventually.
My guess is that people will still drink the same amount, but it will be over a longer period of time, but the bars and outlets will be open for longer, so their overheads will increase, it may create some interesting employment problems for them too. Higher costs, mean drink prices will go up, magnified by our already over the top alcohol duties. If (and I can't predict the future) and when this happens I think many outlets will see less trade and then close. We have not even begun to discuss the issue of what will happen when the proposed smoking ban comes in to force!
The extreme position is that the majority of pubs and bars left in five or ten years will be very expensive chains that do not serve food. The common boozer will probably disappear, hopefully the classic country pub will survive based on the charm of such places, we shall see...
Whatever happens my personal advice, like on the adverts, is to enjoy your drink responsibly.
